From: Morgoth's Curse References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 2.0/32.646 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 417 NNTP-Posting-Host: 4.158.219.40 X-Complaints-To: abuse@prodigy.net X-Trace: newssvr17.news.prodigy.com 1098357823 ST000 4.158.219.40 (Thu, 21 Oct 2004 07:23:43 EDT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 07:23:43 EDT Organization: SBC http://yahoo.sbc.com X-UserInfo1: SCSYQN_@FS@IBQDXABI@N[\BTZXLPUDO@HTHOCULF@^PGDTFOG[]FKKZE\]^HRWI[FCWJF^NB^[D_DSBR^RC^QPFTFUCYRDIH@\FCQKBITUT@EP_[CAFHTC@GLDKZHBMGDXCJINMCA\]GG[RH\^MOM[\BK[NVPWKYAYIPOG@SK@ZA]DE[\AP]_DFU^T]A\VM Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:23:43 GMT Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!news.glorb.com!prodigy.com!newsmst01a.news.prodigy.com!prodigy.com!postmaster.news.prodigy.com!newssvr17.news.prodigy.com.POSTED!d7ceaebf!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163037 On Sun, 29 Aug 2004 13:36:17 -0500, Belba Grubb from Stock wrote: >On Wed, 18 Aug 2004 20:27:24 GMT, Morgoth's Curse > > > >>In the last need, I suppose that Denethor and the remnants of Gondor >>could cross the White Mountains and take refuge in Eriador. > >And then flee further and further north as Sauron's forces marched up >the coast...it wouldn't be an appealing resort, even in extremis. >Better to go into the White Mountains and stay there. Except that, as noted, it is very difficult to feed a population of any size in the mountains. That is why Theodon lived in Edoras rather than in the more defensible Dunharrow. I do not doubt that Gondor's secret strongholds were stocked with provisions, but those would have exhausted in a matter of months or years. With the exception of Dunland, the lands to the north were deserted and far from the military might of Mordor. Moreover, the Misty Mountains were a barrier that armies could not easily cross. Sauron might attack from the seaward regions, but it would take time to ferry any army of that size so far north. The survivors of Gondor could regroup and perhaps found new settlements that would allow them to slowly renew their numbers. It was certainly a more attractive long-term option than gradual extermination. > Perhaps that's >what the earlier Numenoreans had in mind when they built the >Glittering Caves of Aglarond and maybe even other, unmentioned refuges >in early days before they had waxed mighty. Did the Numenoreans build the Glittering Caves of Aglarond? Gimli's description always gave me the impression that they were natural, pristine caverns that the Rohirrim only entered in time of war. > > Nay, though all things must come utterly to an end in time, > Gondor shall not perish yet. Not though the walls be taken by > a reckless foe that will build a hill of carrion before them. > There are still other fastnesses, and secret ways of escape > into the mountains. Hope and memory shall live still in some > hidden valley where the grass is green. > -- Beregond of the Guard > >>>More likely Denethor, knowing that "all the East is moving," would >>>have looked south and west. All those mountain vales and wide land of >>>many rivers running to the sea, with Imrahil's base at Belfalas and >>>the ally of Rohan on the other side of the mountains...there was a lot >>>Denthor could do there to regather the strength of Gondor after the >>>downfall of Minas Tirith and harass and bleed any forces trying to >>>occupy the land. Sauron couldn't have easily put the huge area under >>>control. My guess is that Denethor would have waged a guerrilla >>>campaign in the flat lands while Imrahil kept the Southrons at bay Did Imrahil have sufficient resources to do this? He might be able to defend Dol Amroth, but could he protect the coasts of Gondor and the mouths of Anduin as well? >>> and the entrance to Anduin in friendly hands. When ready, the Gondorian >>>forces would issue forth and first retake the Ringlo vale, which they >>>could relatively easily hold against Sauron's forces in Dor-en-Ernil >>>and Lebennin. Then, when the time was ripe, a second Gondorian force >>>would issue forth from the northern vales, as Imrahil marched north >>>from Belfalas and perhaps also sent a force up the river. An attack >>>from the Ringlo vale would complete the encircling and destruction of >>>Sauron's forces in the region, and the united forces would then turn >>>north and attempt to regain Minas Tirith from the south at the same >>>time that the Riders of Rohan were approaching from the north. >>> >>>Barb >> >>An interesting scenario, but it seems rather unlikely to me. It is >>important to remember that Sauron controlled Umbar and his armies were >>much larger than anything Denethor or Imrahil could call upon. In the >>scenario that you have described, it would be relatively simple for >>Sauron to dispatch two or more Southron armies/navies against Dol >>Amroth. Dol Amroth may have been a mighty fortress, but it could not >>possibly hope to resist an army as large as that dispatched against >>Minas Tirith (especially if it was led by the Nazgul.) > >It wouldn't have to. No army as big as the one that besieged Minas >Tirith could come against it. Minas Tirith had the wide Pelennor in >front of it for an enemy army to camp in. Not so with Dol Amroth. It >has water on three sides (including two bays where conceivably ships >could be trapped and destroyed), and mountains close by on the fourth >which would ensure the high ground against any attackers coming >against Dol Amroth by land; those mountains would also provide refuge, >if necessary, and guaranteed communication and supply lines with >Dunedain elsewhere in the White Mountains. Many of the Gondorians >were probably hardy mountaineers, even the Steward's sons -- look at >Boromir's sage advice before the Fellowship tackled Caradhras, for >instance. All good points, but I have the text on my side. ^___^ "Then you would have us retreat to Minas Tirith, or Dol Amroth, or to Dunharrow, and there sit like children on sand castles when the tide is flowing?" said Imrahil. Imrahil is clearly acknowledging that even such a formidable fortress as Dol Amroth could not long withstand the might of Sauron's armies. Some of the same tactics that were utilized so effectively at the Pelennor--fiery missiles, for example, could also be employed in any siege of Dol Amroth. The terror of the Nazgul certainly would have been effective. Recall that even the knights of Dol Amroth fled when the Witch-King entered the gates of Minas Tirith. > >Getting back to Dol Amroth, it's very strategically located. I wonder >why JRRT placed it so -- did he have plans for the story there, >perhaps? That's a good question! I also wonder if Dol Amroth was founded by the Numenoreans in the days of their power or whether it was built after Numenor had perished. Tolkien's meticulous attention to even such seemingly trivial details is, incidentally, yet another reason why he towers over other fantasy writers. > >Sauron would have to ship an entire army to Anfalas and Belfalas >(where the enemy troops would meet intense opposition) because if they >came overland, even assuming the Dunedain wouldn't be strong enough to >fight them again at Poros or even to hold Pelargir, they'd be bled dry >by guerrillas before they got to Dor-en-Ernil and the mountains that >guard the entrance to the Ringlo Vale. It would be Ossiriand and the >forces of Morgoth all over again. And at the pass to the Ringlo Vale, >the Southrons would have to split their surviving forces, sending some >through the pass into the Vale to come at Dol Amroth from the north, >if any could survive the marksmanship of the archers of Morthond Vale >and others in the western slopes of the mountains. The rest of the >Southrons would go through Belfalas and would be under fire from the >eastern slopes of mountains all the way. Even a handful of determined >Dunedain could pick them all off before they reached Dol Amroth, let >alone attacked it. I believe that you underestimate the ruthlessness of the enemy. Sauron, like Morgoth, simply did not care about losses. He was obviously willing to sacrifice as many men as might be necessary to conquer Dol Amroth and Minas Tirith. Time was, after all, very much on his side. He had already waited more than a thousand years for his vengeance - another hundred years would hardly matter. Recall that he only launched the war when he did because he learned that the Heir of Isildur had the Ruling Ring. I would also like to point out that orcs (particularly those bred in the confines of Moria) were very keen-eyed in the dark and they could be deadly archers. Even a few companies of such orcs could effectively neutralize the archers of Morthond Vale. They would be fighting on alien turf, but they would also be smaller than men and thus able to hide more easily. I doubt that these archers could really stop a determined army. Faramir and his men were expert archers and even they had to descend and defeat the Southrons in close quarters combat in Ithilen. It's also important to understand that the Dunedain would effectively neutralized even if they could not be utterly defeated. Imrahil would not able to launch major offensives from Dol Amroth especially if it was besieged. The remnants of Gondor would be restricted to quick raids and brief assaults. Their mobility would be restricted by the terrain and their lack of horses. Sauron could also employ the same strategy that Morgoth had used to conquer Dorthonion or that he himself had used to capture Mirkwood: Simply allow wolves, giant spiders and other nasty creatures to move into the country until South Gondor had become a land of such gloom and dread that few would dare enter it. > >And all through it, messengers would keep Dol Amroth apprised of >everything happening in the field, while the commanders of the two >wings of the attacking army would have an impassable mountain range in >between them, not to mention the distance to Sauron or whatever field >commander he had installed at Minas Tirith and Pelargir and perhaps >Linhir too. And let's not get into length of supply lines, etc. Supplies are not much of a problem if Sauron controls the Anduin. The river would flow in the exact direction of the battle and supplies could be shipped from Minas Morgul to Pelargir. Reinforcements (primarily Easterlings) could take the same route. (It was much more difficult to supply the Barad-dur over the desolate plains of the Gorgoroth yet this was accomplished so efficiently that the Dark Tower was able to host and equip an enormous army.) > >No, they'd have to go at Dol Amroth with a landing at Anfalas. Yet >even if the Southron armies succeeded in establishing a beachhead >there and were then reinforced with more troops (all of which would >take a lot of time), there would still be the problem with >communication and supply lines, not to mention all the advantages, >mentioned above, that the terrain gave to the defenders. The Dunedain would also have to contend with these disadvantages. Unlike Sauron's armies, however, they could not count on additional supplies and reinforcements. They would be fighting a defensive war and, as Faramir so aptly put it, "Sauron can afford to lose a host better than we to lose a company." Sauron could pursue a scorched earth policy that would deny the defenders any chance of replenishing their supplies while he imported his own supplies. > >And just how many ships could Sauron count on, anyway? The main fleet >of Umbar was about 50 vessels large enough to carry troops and many >small vessels. Were these enough to both invest Dol Amroth, the >Longstrand and Belfalas, as well as keep a tight hold on Ethir Anduin >and the passages of the Anduin, plus patrol the rivers of Lebennin? They were sufficient to conquer all of South Gondor (with the exception of Dol Amroth) during the War of the Ring. It was only the completely unexpected arrival of Aragorn and the host of the Dead that routed the armies of the Haradrim. I also wonder if the Dunedain actually had any ships on the rivers of Lebennin at that time. The naval might of Gondor seems to have disappeared almost completely during Denethor's stewardship. > >Dol Amroth could be attacked by air, and certainly some or all of the >Nazgul would come against it. But even assuming all nine survived the >Battle of Pelennor Fields, they would be spread pretty thin: some >would be needed in Rohan, some in the north by Mirkwood and Erebor and >Lorien, some to guard Mordor and the newly won Minas Tirith, as well >as to patrol the White Mountains. And in all these areas would be >bowmen at least the match of Legolas -- the Nazgul's mounts were >extremely vulnerable wherever they flew. Why do you assume that the Nazgul would be divided? They were most formidable when they operated as a unit. Sauron certainly recognized that and dispatched all nine to seize the Ring and to assail Minas Tirith. Moreover, the offensive capacity of the countries mentioned above was virtually nil. I doubt Sauron would waste any of the Nazgul on the task of patrolling Mirkwood or Erebor. He had other commanders for that task. He only assailed the realms of Rhovanion in order to prevent his enemies from recreating the Last Alliance that had defeated him in the Second Age. Let's take a moment to review the situation at the time of the War of the Ring: There were six kingdoms that were opposed to Sauron: Gondor, Rohan, Lorien, Thrainduil and the elves of Mirkwood, Erebor/Dale and the Beornings. In order to defeat and/or neutralize these enemies, Sauron attacked each as follows: Gondor: Simultaneous land/sea assaults upon South Gondor and Minas Tirith. 3 armies were dispatched: The Corsairs of Umbar were dispatched to conquer South Gondor while Minas Tirith was assailed by the army of Minas Morgul; A third army was dispatched from Barad-dur to prevent the Rohirrim from aiding Gondor. Result: Corsairs routed by Aragorn and the host of the Dead. The host of Minas Morgul was just barely defeated by the combined armies of Minas Tirith, Rohan and the reinforcements led by Aragorn. Had Aragorn been slain during the long road from the Paths of the Dead, Minas Tirith would have almost certainly been conquered. The army of Barad-dur was routed and dispersed by the Rohirrim after the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. Rohan: Sauron attempted to neutralize Rohan by corrupting Saruman. This strategy would have succeeded except for the unexpected intervention of Gandalf and the Ents. Sauron then dispatched two armies to destroy the Rohirrim. One occupied Anorien and the other assailed the eastern frontiers of Rohan. Result: The army of Barad-dur, as previously mentioned, was dispersed (but not destroyed) after the Battle of the Field of Pelennor. The survivors presumably perished or went home after Sauron's downfall. The army that had assailed Rohan was utterly and unexpectedly destroyed by the Ents. Lorien: Sauron sent an army from Dol Guldur as well as units from Moria to attack Lorien. Result: The elves of Lorien were able successfully repel all assaults BUT were unable to destroy Dol Guldur until after Sauron's downfall. Mirkwood: Sauron dispatched forces from Dol Guldur to attack Thranduil and the men of the Mirkwood. These may have been joined by Easterlings. Result: Thranduil prevailed only after a long and costly battle--probably the longest battle of the entire war--and needed the assistance of Galadriel & Celeborn to completely destroy all of Sauron's creatures in Mirkwood. Erebor & Dale: Sauron dispatched an army of Easterlings to attack Dale & the Lonely Mountain. Result: Dale was conquered and the forces of Erebor were routed, but the survivors were able to take refuge and withstand a siege in the Lonely Mountain. They were unable to defeat their enemies until after the destruction of the Ring. The Beornings: While little is known of their role in the War of the Ring, Sauron could have attacked them with forces from three directions: The Mines of Moria, the Grey Mountains and Dol Guldur. Result: Frodo saw evidence that the Beornings were being attacked while he gazed out from Amon Hen, but, AFAIK, Tolkien does not mention them again in LOTR. They presumably either defeated the invaders or else joined themselves to the Host of Thranduil and fought in the battles of Mirkwood. As you can see, Sauron was able to field at least eight armies simultaneously and at least six of those armies would have been successful had it not been for factors that Sauron did not or could not anticipate: The defeat of Saruman; the intervention of the Ents and the appearance of Aragorn and his allies, It's unlikely that the presence of the Nazgul at any of these battles (with the exception of the Field of Pelennor) would have made much difference. Denethor was absolutely correct when he perceived that he could not hope to defeat the military might of Mordor. >Now, what would have ruined all this would have been Saruman's >overcoming the Rohirrim and unwittingly opening up the Gap to Sauron's >forces, had the Ents allowed them to pass. It would have been a long >trek but conceivably Sauron's forces could still pour through the Gap >and then through pass between the Ered Nimrais and the peninsular >mountains and come at Dol Amroth from the west. Long, long supply >lines and communication problems, at least until Sauron's lieutenant >settled into Isengard, but unlike the situation in the eastern half of >that region of Gondor, invading armies could stick closer to the coast >and there really wouldn't be much that mountain-based guerrillas could >do to them. Umbar could meet up with the incoming forces at the mouth >of that westernmost river west of Pinnath Galen whose name I can't >read on this map, and together they could march and sail east, while >Sauron could send other armies in heading west from the river, >catching the Dunedain in the middle. The Gondorians would have to >flee to the White Mountains and end up as forgotten hill people. That's an interesting scenario and I expect that Sauron might dispatch orcs from Moria to at least harass any survivors that might take such a route to Eriador. > >> We must also >>remember that the southern fiefs were on the verge of being conquered >>when Aragorn arrived with army of the Dead. > >Were they actually on the verge of being conquered? There was battle >at Linhir at the fords of Gilrain, where the men of Lamedon were >fighting troops from Umbar and Harad who had sailed up the river, but >we don't know that either side was winning -- almost everybody freaked >out and fled when the Grey Company and the Army of the Dead showed up. >The Dunedain and mountain men might well have been holding their own >there, at the least, or even winning. Possibly, but Gimli says that the Haradrim were still a formidable army when they regrouped at Pelargir. Indeed, Aragorn never would have been able to prevail at that point without the aid of the Dead. My impression (and I could easily be mistaken) is that much of the army was still being held in reserve while the Battle of the Fords of Gilrain was being fought. > >The main fleet of Umbar was at Pelargir, but I don't know that there >was a battle there until the Grey Company showed up. Probably most of >that fleet was intended to sail up the river to Minas Tirith, leaving >behind enough men to hold Pelargir (which would in any case, until >Aragorn showed up, have been abandoned without a fight), and then >after the fall of the City head south to join in the "mop up" and >quite possibly ended up in a real 'quagmire.' The very fact that the Pelargir HAD been abandoned speaks volumes about the military strength of the southern fiefs. Pelargir might not have been of much use to Gondor, but it would have been very valuable as a base and a supply depot for the Haradrim. They could and did use it to land troops in South Gondor. You don't give up such a strategic location without a battle unless you have absolutely no choice. One of the reasons why the Union won the Civil War was because it was able to capture Southern ports and thereby invade the Confederacy at many different points. > >The southern fiefs had not yet begun to fight. > >>would dispatch an army or two to Rohan to forestall any aid from that >>quarter (as he did in the War of the Ring and which was only thwarted >>by the unexpected aid of the Ents.) With Dol Amroth destroyed and the >>whole of Anduin under Sauron's control, it would be just a matter of >>seeking and out destroying Gondor's remaining strongholds, as Morgoth >>had done earlier in Beleriand during the First Age. > >That might have turned out differently, had an alliance been formed >with the Elves of Ossiriand. I think that it is rather unlikely. There was very little that the Elves of Ossiriand could do against the forces that Morgoth had marshaled for the conquest of Nargothrond or Gondolin. I think that even the Dwarven cities of Belegost & Nogrod would have been conquered if Morgoth had not been preoccupied with Hithlum, Nargothrond & the other Noldorin realms. > >>My point is that once Minas Tirith had fallen, Gondor was finished. >>That was, after all, the reason why Denethor asked his subjects and >>allies to travel to Minas Tirith. > >Nay...hope and memory would live still in some hidden valley where the >grass was green. "I have spoken words of hope. But only of hope. Hope is not victory. War is upon us and all of our friends, a war in which only the use of the Ring could give us surety of victory. It fills me with great sorrow and great fear: for much shall be destroyed and all may be lost. I am Gandalf, Gandalf the White, but Black is mightier still." ^____^ > >Denethor lost hope, and I think had lost the resilience that people >like Beregond still retained. Minas Tirith was the biggest sand >castle in a running tide and so would last a little longer than the >others. Imrahil led so many men to Gondor in answer to Denethor's >call certainly because Minas Tirith was important and Denethor was >kin, but also because he knew that Dol Amroth more than likely would >still be there (for the reasons given above), even if he had to fight >all the way back to it after the defeat of Minas Tirith. He might return to Dol Amroth, but it would be only a matter of time before Sauron would capture that fortress too. Minas Tirith was Gondor in the same way that Constantinople was Byzantium. Once either city had perished, the Empire died with it too. Morgoth's Curse ###### Message-ID: <4177b78e$0$20595$afc38c87@news.easynet.co.uk> From: "Simon J. Rowe" Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Followup-To: alt.fan.tolkien Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 14:20:14 +0100 References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> User-Agent: KNode/0.7.2 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-15 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8Bit Lines: 30 Organization: [posted via Easynet UK] NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.204.121.82 X-Trace: DXC=Jk0:_]Fg_`DL2`]YX47n6SV[WK>\ That's a good question! I also wonder if Dol Amroth was founded by > the Numenoreans in the days of their power or whether it was built > after Numenor had perished. According to UT Dol Amroth was of Sindarin origin. Late and fragmentary notes go some way to explaining these references. Thus in a discussion of linguistic and political interrelations in Middle-earth (dating from 1969 or later) there is a passing reference to the fact that in the days of the earlier settlements of Númenor the shores of the Bay of Belfalas were still mainly desolate ?except for a haven and small settlement of Elves at the south of the confluence of Morthoad and Ringló? (i.e. just north of Dol Amroth). This, according to the traditions of Dol Amroth, had been established by seafaring Sindar from the west havens of Beleriand who fled in three small ships when the power of Morgoth overwhelmed the Eldar and the Atani; but it was later increased by adventurers of the Silvan Elves seeking for the sea who came down Anduin. > Result: Frodo saw evidence that the Beornings were being attacked > while he gazed out from Amon Hen, but, AFAIK, Tolkien does not mention > them again in LOTR. They presumably either defeated the invaders or > else joined themselves to the Host of Thranduil and fought in the > battles of Mirkwood. They are mentioned in Appendix B but their role in the War of the Ring isn't. ###### From: "Christopher Kreuzer" Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Lines: 119 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Newsreader: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1409 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1409 Message-ID: Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 22:44:47 GMT NNTP-Posting-Host: 82.44.98.52 X-Complaints-To: abuse@blueyonder.co.uk X-Trace: text.news.blueyonder.co.uk 1098398687 82.44.98.52 (Thu, 21 Oct 2004 23:44:47 BST) NNTP-Posting-Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 23:44:47 BST Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!newsfeed.wirehub.nl!border1.nntp.ams.giganews.com!border2.nntp.ams.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-hub.cableinet.net!blueyonder!pe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk!blueyonder!text.news.blueyonder.co.uk!53ab2750!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163069 Morgoth's Curse wrote: [about Sauron's military might] > On Sun, 29 Aug 2004 13:36:17 -0500, Belba Grubb from Stock > wrote: [about retreating to Dol Amroth] > All good points, but I have the text on my side. ^___^ > > "Then you would have us retreat to Minas Tirith, or Dol Amroth, or to > Dunharrow, and there sit like children on sand castles when the tide > is flowing?" said Imrahil. Bingo! :-) Imrahil has the truth of it! Good quote! I really liked your military overview of the WotR. Not a lot more to say, but I'd like to add a few quotes from the Council of Elrond about what they thought Sauron's long-term aims were: "Only the waning might of Gondor stands now between him and a march in power along the coasts into the North; and if he comes, assailing the White Towers and the Havens, hereafter the Elves may have no escape from the lengthening shadows of Middle-earth." (Galdor, The Council of Elrond) And I found something that Gandalf says to Frodo: "Indeed there is a power in Rivendell to withstand the might of Mordor, for a while: and elsewhere other powers still dwell. There is power, too, of another kind in the Shire. But all such places will soon become islands under siege, if things go on as they are going. The Dark Lord is putting forth all his strength." (Many Meetings) And back in the Council, we hear this about Bombadil: "...soon or late the Lord of the Rings would learn of its hiding place and would bend all his power towards it. Could that power be defied by Bombadil alone? I think not. I think that in the end, if all else is conquered, Bombadil will fall, Last as he was First; and then Night will come." (Glorfindel, The Council of Elrond) > Let's take a moment to review the situation at the time of the War of > the Ring: There were six kingdoms that were opposed to Sauron: > Gondor, Rohan, Lorien, Thranduil and the elves of Mirkwood, > Erebor/Dale and the Beornings. In order to defeat and/or neutralize > these enemies, Sauron attacked each as follows: I wonder what his plans would have been for conquering Eriador? Were the Elves at the Council correct in their assessement? > The army of Barad-dur was routed and dispersed by the Rohirrim > after the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. Is this the army that was thrown into the battle after the WK fell? "...new strength came now streaming to the field out of Osgiliath. There they had been mustered for the sack of the City and the rape of Gondor, waiting on the call of their Captain. He now was destroyed..." (The Battle of the Pelennor Fields) Or maybe you mean the army that the Rohirrim evaded with the help of the Druedain? And at the Last Debate Imrahil says: "And yet we learn from the Rohirrim that there is an army still unfought upon our northern flank." And the plan devised is: "...some three thousand under the command of Elfhelm, should waylay the West Road against the enemy that was in Anorien." Ah. I had always thought that this army in Anorien was the one destroyed by the Ents. From what you say, it seems not. I can't remember where the relevant quote for that "Ent-destroyed" army is... > Result: Thranduil prevailed only after a long and costly > battle--probably the longest battle of the entire war Where do you get the length of this battle from? >> Nay...hope and memory would live still in some hidden valley where >> the grass was green. > > "I have spoken words of hope. But only of hope. Hope is not victory. > War is upon us and all of our friends, a war in which only the use of > the Ring could give us surety of victory. It fills me with great > sorrow and great fear: for much shall be destroyed and all may be > lost. I am Gandalf, Gandalf the White, but Black is mightier still." Ooh! Let's find another depressing quote: "...listen to the words of the Steward of Gondor before he died: You may triumph on the fields of the Pelennor for a day, but against the Power that has now arisen there is no victory. I do not bid you despair, as he did, but to ponder the truth in these words. [...] Victory cannot be achieved by arms, whether you sit here to endure siege after siege, or march out to be overwhelmed beyond the River..." (The Last Debate) This is followed by Imrahil's quote way up at the beginning of this post. So we've gone full circle. Retreating to Dol Amroth or other places was without ultimate hope. Christopher -- --- Reply clue: Saruman welcomes you to Spamgard ###### From: Morgoth's Curse Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Message-ID: References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 2.0/32.646 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 165 NNTP-Posting-Host: 4.158.219.125 X-Complaints-To: abuse@prodigy.net X-Trace: newssvr15.news.prodigy.com 1098473240 ST000 4.158.219.125 (Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:27:20 EDT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:27:20 EDT Organization: SBC http://yahoo.sbc.com X-UserInfo1: Q[RGWX_D^ZUCB_@Z\JK@^TTDFZ\@@FXLM@TDOCQDJ@_@FNTCCNSKQFCY@TXDX_WHSVB]ZEJLSNY\^J[CUVSA_QLFC^RQHUPH[P[NRWCCMLSNPOD_ESALHUK@TDFUZHBLJ\XGKL^NXA\EVHSP[D_C^B_^JCX^W]CHBAX]POG@SSAZQ\LE[DCNMUPG_VSC@VJM Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 19:27:20 GMT Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!news.mailgate.org!newscore.univie.ac.at!newsfeed01.sul.t-online.de!newsfeed00.sul.t-online.de!t-online.de!border2.nntp.dca.giganews.com!border1.nntp.dca.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!newshosting.com!nx02.iad01.newshosting.com!prodigy.com!newsmst01a.news.prodigy.com!prodigy.com!postmaster.news.prodigy.com!newssvr15.news.prodigy.com.POSTED!d7ceaebf!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163098 On Thu, 21 Oct 2004 22:44:47 GMT, "Christopher Kreuzer" wrote: [snip] >Morgoth's Curse wrote: > >[about Sauron's military might] > >> On Sun, 29 Aug 2004 13:36:17 -0500, Belba Grubb from Stock >> wrote: > >[about retreating to Dol Amroth] > >> All good points, but I have the text on my side. ^___^ >> >> "Then you would have us retreat to Minas Tirith, or Dol Amroth, or to >> Dunharrow, and there sit like children on sand castles when the tide >> is flowing?" said Imrahil. > >Bingo! :-) > >Imrahil has the truth of it! Good quote! > > > >I really liked your military overview of the WotR. > >Not a lot more to say, but I'd like to add a few quotes from the Council >of Elrond about what they thought Sauron's long-term aims were: > >"Only the waning might of Gondor stands now between him and a march in >power along the coasts into the North; and if he comes, assailing the >White Towers and the Havens, hereafter the Elves may have no escape from >the lengthening shadows of Middle-earth." (Galdor, The Council of >Elrond) > >And I found something that Gandalf says to Frodo: > >"Indeed there is a power in Rivendell to withstand the might of Mordor, >for a while: and elsewhere other powers still dwell. There is power, >too, of another kind in the Shire. But all such places will soon become >islands under siege, if things go on as they are going. The Dark Lord is >putting forth all his strength." (Many Meetings) > >And back in the Council, we hear this about Bombadil: > >"...soon or late the Lord of the Rings would learn of its hiding place >and would bend all his power towards it. Could that power be defied by >Bombadil alone? I think not. I think that in the end, if all else is >conquered, Bombadil will fall, Last as he was First; and then Night will >come." (Glorfindel, The Council of Elrond) > >> Let's take a moment to review the situation at the time of the War of >> the Ring: There were six kingdoms that were opposed to Sauron: >> Gondor, Rohan, Lorien, Thranduil and the elves of Mirkwood, >> Erebor/Dale and the Beornings. In order to defeat and/or neutralize >> these enemies, Sauron attacked each as follows: > >I wonder what his plans would have been for conquering Eriador? Were the >Elves at the Council correct in their assessement? What was there to conquer in Eriador? Neither Bree nor the Shire could hope to resist an invasion for any meaningful length of time nor did they pose a threat to Sauron and thus it is unlikely that he would have wasted any troops in that vicinity during the War of the Ring. If he wanted to conquer the Havens, then he need only send a dozen or so Corsair ships up the coast to the Gulf of Luhn and thence to the Havens. (My impression is that the Havens were largely deserted except Cirdan and a small band of followers that continued to build ships. Given the care that the Elves lavished on their ships, I would be surprised if Cirdan would need more than 200-300 Elves to assist him and possibly even fewer than that.) Or the Corsairs could have landed a small army at the mouth of the Baranduin [Brandywine River] and which could then head due north while skirting the Blue Mountains. The location of Rivendell was known to Sauron and while destroying it was definitely on his list of things to do, it was not an immediate priority. The military power of Rivendell had diminished to the point where it was effectively nonexistent. Sauron's strategy would depend on whether or not he had conquered Rhovanion. If he had prevailed, then he had his choice of routes: Either the Gap of Rohan or the High Pass would do just fine, If he had not yet won and still wanted to encircle Rivendell, he could either send Orcs from Moria over the Redhorn Gate and then north to Rivendell or he might send Orcs and Easterlings from the Grey Mountains through the passes of Angmar and then south to Rivendell. It would be a long journey in either case and Elrond would have more than enough time to either evacuate or strengthen his defenses. I doubt that any army sent would be able to capture Rivendell, but it could at least prevent anybody from getting in or out. > > > >> The army of Barad-dur was routed and dispersed by the Rohirrim >> after the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. > >Is this the army that was thrown into the battle after the WK fell? Possibly, but I am inclined to think that that army was merely regiments from the army of Minas Morgul that were being held in reserve. The Witch-king had so many troops that he was able to spare some just to destroy the Rammas [the outwall] while he led the assault on the city itself. >"...new strength came now streaming to the field out of Osgiliath. There >they had been mustered for the sack of the City and the rape of Gondor, >waiting on the call of their Captain. He now was destroyed..." (The >Battle of the Pelennor Fields) > >Or maybe you mean the army that the Rohirrim evaded with the help of the >Druedain? And at the Last Debate Imrahil says: > >"And yet we learn from the Rohirrim that there is an army still unfought >upon our northern flank." Yes. That was the army that issued from the Morannon and captured Cair Andros on March 10 and then occupied Anorien to prevent Rohan from aiding Gondor. It is impossible to say how large it was, but I rather doubt that it had more than 5,000 soldiers. Elfhem was able to rout and disperse it with only a mere 3,000 horsemen, after all. The survivors fled to Cair Andros and held it until Sauron's downfall. It was presumably recaptured by the men that Aragorn had dismissed on March 23. It is unknown whether the survivors were among those pardoned and released by Aragorn after his coronation. >And the plan devised is: > >"...some three thousand under the command of Elfhelm, should waylay the >West Road against the enemy that was in Anorien." > >Ah. I had always thought that this army in Anorien was the one destroyed >by the Ents. From what you say, it seems not. I can't remember where the >relevant quote for that "Ent-destroyed" army is... It is from the chapter "Many Partings" when Treebeard was speaking of the Orc army that had invaded Rohan: "And these same foul creatures were more than surprised to meet us on the Wold, for they had not heard of us before, though that might be said also of better folk. And not many will remember us, for not many escaped us alive and the River had most of those. But it was well for you, for if they had not met us, then the king of the grassland would not ridden far, and if he had there would have been no home to return to." [That battle occurred on March 12.] > >> Result: Thranduil prevailed only after a long and costly >> battle--probably the longest battle of the entire war > >Where do you get the length of this battle from? In The Tale of Years [Appendix B], it says that on March 15, Thranduil repelled the forces of Dol Guldur. We know that Celeborn & Galadriel destroyed Dol Guldur on March 28 and that they then met Thranduil on April 8. We also know, however, when Frodo looked out from Amon Hen on February 26, he saw that "Under the boughs of Mirkwood there was deadly strife of Elves and Men and fell beasts." This may have only been a vision or it may be that the battle had already begun. Even if we only use the dates of March 15 & April 8, that would mean that the battle lasted approximately twenty-five days - hardly surprising given the vastness of Mirkwood and the conditions that the battle was fought under. (I wanted to give an exact number of days, but this dratted Shire calendar keeps screwing up my count!) Morgoth's Curse ###### From: me@privacy.net (Jamie Andrews; real address @ bottom of message) Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Date: 22 Oct 2004 19:44:54 GMT Organization: Dept. of CS, Univ. of Western Ontario, London, Ont. Lines: 12 Sender: Jamie Andrews Message-ID: <2tt69mF20pks6U4@uni-berlin.de> References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> X-Trace: news.uni-berlin.de e3sd6hsm5dMuCUkK3hITPAgpN2rC42OMBwv4pv4CYXvFFUi/sI X-Orig-Path: not-for-mail User-Agent: tin/1.4.7-20030322 ("Suggestions") (UNIX) (SunOS/5.8 (sun4u)) Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!newscore.univie.ac.at!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163104 In rec.arts.books.tolkien Christopher Kreuzer wrote: > Ah. I had always thought that this army in Anorien was the one destroyed > by the Ents. From what you say, it seems not. I can't remember where the > relevant quote for that "Ent-destroyed" army is... I think it's in one of the Appendices. It's a bit strange -- I don't think it appears in the main text even though the group goes by Isengard and chats with Treebeard later. --Jamie. (a Dover edition designed for years of use!) andrews .uwo } Merge these two lines to obtain my e-mail address. @csd .ca } (Unsolicited "bulk" e-mail costs everyone.) ###### From: "Christopher Kreuzer" Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Lines: 43 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Newsreader: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1409 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1409 Message-ID: Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 21:35:44 GMT NNTP-Posting-Host: 82.44.98.52 X-Complaints-To: abuse@blueyonder.co.uk X-Trace: text.news.blueyonder.co.uk 1098480944 82.44.98.52 (Fri, 22 Oct 2004 22:35:44 BST) NNTP-Posting-Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 22:35:44 BST Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!news.mailgate.org!newsfeed.icl.net!newsfeed00.sul.t-online.de!t-online.de!news.zanker.org!border2.nntp.ams.giganews.com!border1.nntp.ams.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-hub.cableinet.net!blueyonder!pe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk!blueyonder!text.news.blueyonder.co.uk!53ab2750!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163111 Morgoth's Curse wrote: > My impression is that the Havens were largely deserted > except Cirdan and a small band of followers that continued to build > ships. Given the care that the Elves lavished on their ships, I would > be surprised if Cirdan would need more than 200-300 Elves to assist > him and possibly even fewer than that.) Hmm. I get the other impression, that the Havens, while not tremendously populated, were not deserted. I'd agree with the figure of 200-300, but wouldn't call that 'largely deserted'. Is there anything in the text either way? Would you say your impression of the population of Rivendell is more or less? Is Rivendell a large valley, or just a single house? There is also the Tower Hills, and probably populations of Elves in the regions of Forlindon and Harlindon. > Christopher Kreuzer wrote: >> Ah. I had always thought that this army in Anorien was the one >> destroyed by the Ents. From what you say, it seems not. I can't >> remember where the relevant quote for that "Ent-destroyed" army is... > > It is from the chapter "Many Partings" when Treebeard was speaking of > the Orc army that had invaded Rohan: > > "And these same foul creatures were more than surprised to > meet us on the Wold [...] But it was well for you, for if they had > not met us, then the king of the grassland would not have ridden > far, and if he had there would have been no home to return to." > [That battle occurred on March 12.] Ah. Thanks. It is a nice touch by Tolkien to put this factoid here, long after the battles are over. Tells us that things have been happening in the background elsewhere. We get more of this in the Appendices. Christopher -- --- Reply clue: Saruman welcomes you to Spamgard ###### From: Morgoth's Curse Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Message-ID: <79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com> References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 2.0/32.646 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 54 NNTP-Posting-Host: 4.158.219.85 X-Complaints-To: abuse@prodigy.net X-Trace: newssvr31.news.prodigy.com 1098509517 ST000 4.158.219.85 (Sat, 23 Oct 2004 01:31:57 EDT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 01:31:57 EDT Organization: SBC http://yahoo.sbc.com X-UserInfo1: FKPO@MC@OHUORSTXFROPN_P@GB]FBL@MAHU^_BAMEH]TCDYG^WH[AACY@TZZXQ[KS^ESKCJLOF_J_NGAWNTG^_XGTNTAHULK[X[NRTC@G\P^PLT_OCBRHUO@@TBQZDZMHD[YZ@NLXQXIWMOSXT_KOLK^^CXFF\WHMI^C@EGA_[FXAQ@E^TGNMUXGYNS[QQVL Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 05:31:57 GMT Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!news.glorb.com!prodigy.com!newsmst01a.news.prodigy.com!prodigy.com!postmaster.news.prodigy.com!newssvr31.news.prodigy.com.POSTED!d7ceaebf!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163116 On Fri, 22 Oct 2004 21:35:44 GMT, "Christopher Kreuzer" wrote: >Morgoth's Curse wrote: > > > >> My impression is that the Havens were largely deserted >> except Cirdan and a small band of followers that continued to build >> ships. Given the care that the Elves lavished on their ships, I would >> be surprised if Cirdan would need more than 200-300 Elves to assist >> him and possibly even fewer than that.) > >Hmm. I get the other impression, that the Havens, while not tremendously >populated, were not deserted. I'd agree with the figure of 200-300, but >wouldn't call that 'largely deserted'. Is there anything in the text >either way? Would you say your impression of the population of Rivendell >is more or less? Is Rivendell a large valley, or just a single house? > >There is also the Tower Hills, and probably populations of Elves in the >regions of Forlindon and Harlindon. I do not doubt that both the Havens and Rivendell had previously been much more populous in the past. The armies of the Last Alliance had resided at Rivendell for nearly three years, after all, and there must have been many homes and halls and workshops concealed in the valley, although Elrond's house would have certainly been the largest and most magnificent. Similarly, the Havens must have been quite large especially while there was still sea traffic between Gondor & Arnor. Cirdan had doubtless welcomed many a Numenorean captain in his halls and held council with Gil-galad in a fashion befitting a king. It was obviously very different when Frodo visited both Rivendell & the Havens in the last years of the Third Age. Most of the Noldor and Sindar had left Middle-earth or been slain; the kingdom of Arnor had perished and the remaining Dunedain had become a wandering people; and the ships that had once been the pride of Gondor were only a memory. Only Elves still came to the Havens and they could not have been very numerous or more Hobbits surely would have noticed their passage through the Shire. I suspect that the Elves probably had to live at the Havens until enough had arrived to crew a ship to Valinor since it was a one way trip. My impression of the Havens is based primarily on Frodo's arrival in 1421. Cirdan himself greets the Elves and hobbits when they arrive and there is no mention of any crowd waiting to greet them, though one might expect that many might have swiftly gathered to greet Elrond & Galadriel. When they finally board the ship and sail away, Sam, Merry & Pippin are left to stand on the quay and watch the ship until it disappears from sight. One cannot help but feel that the three Hobbits are utterly alone at that moment, that none of the Elves have opted to abide in Middle-earth for a little while. Morgoth's Curse ###### From: AC Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 21:23:36 -0700 Lines: 22 Message-ID: <2u61q8F269t5iU1@uni-berlin.de> References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> <79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Trace: news.uni-berlin.de 6YqY4qY1bmEZYsXEDK8Vxg3r22Gxvx0TbMCI9xHKfgRbdKCj1r User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 0.8 (Windows/20040913) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en In-Reply-To: <79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com> Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163264 Morgoth's Curse wrote: > My impression of the Havens is based primarily on Frodo's arrival in > 1421. Cirdan himself greets the Elves and hobbits when they arrive > and there is no mention of any crowd waiting to greet them, though one > might expect that many might have swiftly gathered to greet Elrond & > Galadriel. When they finally board the ship and sail away, Sam, Merry > & Pippin are left to stand on the quay and watch the ship until it > disappears from sight. One cannot help but feel that the three > Hobbits are utterly alone at that moment, that none of the Elves have > opted to abide in Middle-earth for a little while. While I see your point, and don't necessarily disagree with your conclusion, I still find it pretty sketchy to base any theory as to the Havens' population on. -- Aaron Clausen mightymartianca@hotmail.com "My illness is due to my doctor's insistence that I drink milk, a whitish fluid they force down helpless babies." - WC Fields ###### From: Morgoth's Curse Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Message-ID: References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> <79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com> <2u61q8F269t5iU1@uni-berlin.de> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 2.0/32.646 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 54 NNTP-Posting-Host: 4.158.219.145 X-Complaints-To: abuse@prodigy.net X-Trace: newssvr17.news.prodigy.com 1098782887 ST000 4.158.219.145 (Tue, 26 Oct 2004 05:28:07 EDT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 05:28:07 EDT Organization: SBC http://yahoo.sbc.com X-UserInfo1: FKPO@SRD[ZTMBR@[TROFO_@@USXB@DTMNHWB_EYLJZ]BGIELK^RAQFW[ML\THRCKV^GGZKJMGV^^_JSCFFUA_QXFGVSCYRPILH]TRVKC^LSN@DX_HCAFX__@J\DAJBVMY\ZWZCZLPA^MVH_P@\\EOMW\YSXHG__IJQY_@M[A[[AXQ_XDSTAR]\PG]NVAQUVM Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 09:28:07 GMT Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!news.glorb.com!prodigy.com!newsmst01a.news.prodigy.com!prodigy.com!postmaster.news.prodigy.com!newssvr17.news.prodigy.com.POSTED!d7ceaebf!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163269 On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 21:23:36 -0700, AC wrote: >Morgoth's Curse wrote: > >> My impression of the Havens is based primarily on Frodo's arrival in >> 1421. Cirdan himself greets the Elves and hobbits when they arrive >> and there is no mention of any crowd waiting to greet them, though one >> might expect that many might have swiftly gathered to greet Elrond & >> Galadriel. When they finally board the ship and sail away, Sam, Merry >> & Pippin are left to stand on the quay and watch the ship until it >> disappears from sight. One cannot help but feel that the three >> Hobbits are utterly alone at that moment, that none of the Elves have >> opted to abide in Middle-earth for a little while. > >While I see your point, and don't necessarily disagree with your >conclusion, I still find it pretty sketchy to base any theory as to the >Havens' population on. Well, I am also basing my estimate on the basis of the history of Middle-earth. Most of the Elves of Middle-earth perished during the long wars with Morgoth in the First Age, of course. Most of the Noldor who had survived obeyed the summons of the Valar and returned to Aman. Only a small fraction of the Noldor remained with such of the Sindar and Avari who had not crossed into Beleriand. The Noldor who still dwelt in Middle-earth were further decimated by three wars with Sauron: Sauron's first invasion of Eriador, the Last Alliance and the downfall of Arnor. By the time that Angmar had been destroyed, the majority of the Noldor had either perished or fled into the West; Only Rivendell and the Havens had survived. Cirdan, who saw further and deeper than any other in Middle-earth, was certainly aware that Dominion of Men was swiftly approaching and that Elves must either leave or fade, was probably not concerned about rebuilding the population of the Havens. How could he? I suspect that the exodus of the Noldor accelerated as the world darkened and the power of Sauron increased. Neither Cirdan nor any other Elven lords could or would demand that their subjects bear children (I think this is covered in the Laws & Customs but I can't recall the exact reference.) The Sindar who dwelt with Thranduil in Mirkwood were content to remain in Middle-earth and the Galadhrim were similarly uninterested. The only Noldor were to be found in Rivendell and for most of those a journey to the Havens was a one-way trip. Moreover the Havens did not really require a large population to maintain them. The Elves were accustomed to building with such care and excellence that I suspect that even the quays and piers would require very little maintenance. Food was not a problem as a handful of fishermen could provide enough food for such a small community. (Perhaps the companies of Elves that wandered in Eriador harvested wild herbs and roots to exchange with Cirdan's people?) A few foresters to harvest trees, a few blacksmiths to forge tools and some shipwrights to build the ships was all Cirdan really needed. Morgoth's Curse ###### NNTP-Posting-Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 09:06:42 -0500 From: "The American" Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> <79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com> Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 10:06:36 -0400 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Newsreader: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Message-ID: Lines: 32 NNTP-Posting-Host: 66.203.74.66 X-Trace: sv3-7AGYo/Lg2qm1PAIEEfwAUUixmk4cSajnEyBMvix0cpGehfRyA82PUm2gMOIwO//LEAEnXBlvUjN6GIg!/PzgylITjC+Jun7VX7hJDoD9iE6n7iAFBnMGl8wkkQ8SJ4HHkW1XOFIKoBkq+k2TisgKE24MaMkp!56j2TQ== X-Complaints-To: abuse@conversent.net X-DMCA-Complaints-To: abuse@conversent.net X-Abuse-and-DMCA-Info: Please be sure to forward a copy of ALL headers X-Abuse-and-DMCA-Info: Otherwise we will be unable to process your complaint properly X-Postfilter: 1.3.20 Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!solnet.ch!solnet.ch!news.glorb.com!border1.nntp.dca.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!local1.nntp.dca.giganews.com!nntp.conversent.net!news.conversent.net.POSTED!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163274 "Morgoth's Curse" wrote in message news:79pjn0p9mk1qu99s20hhumjc2csa1oda87@4ax.com... > > My impression of the Havens is based primarily on Frodo's arrival in > 1421. Cirdan himself greets the Elves and hobbits when they arrive > and there is no mention of any crowd waiting to greet them, though one > might expect that many might have swiftly gathered to greet Elrond & > Galadriel. Just because there were no crowds doesn't mean that there weren't any (weakest argument in the world, I know!). But I think it was more significant that Cirdan himself greeted Frodo's group. I think Tolkien was trying to convey that Cirdan was giving them a *great* honor in doing so. > When they finally board the ship and sail away, Sam, Merry > & Pippin are left to stand on the quay and watch the ship until it > disappears from sight. One cannot help but feel that the three > Hobbits are utterly alone at that moment, that none of the Elves have > opted to abide in Middle-earth for a little while. > Again I always took it to mean that the remaining Elves respected the Hobbit's saddness and left them alone. It wasn't really fitting to offer them a tour of the Havens at that time. (Too bad!) T.A. ###### From: Belba Grubb From Stock Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 13:00:00 -0600 Organization: Very little, but I try Message-ID: References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.93/32.576 English (American) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Complaints-To: abuse@supernews.com Lines: 633 Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!irazu.switch.ch!switch.ch!tiscali!newsfeed2.ip.tiscali.net!newshosting.com!nx02.iad01.newshosting.com!news.glorb.com!sn-xit-04!sn-xit-08!sn-post-01!supernews.com!corp.supernews.com!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163709 On Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:23:43 GMT, Morgoth's Curse On Sun, 29 Aug 2004 13:36:17 -0500, Belba Grubb from Stock > wrote: > >>On Wed, 18 Aug 2004 20:27:24 GMT, Morgoth's Curse >>> >> >> >>>In the last need, I suppose that Denethor and the remnants of Gondor >>>could cross the White Mountains and take refuge in Eriador. >> >>And then flee further and further north as Sauron's forces marched up >>the coast...it wouldn't be an appealing resort, even in extremis. >>Better to go into the White Mountains and stay there. > >Except that, as noted, it is very difficult to feed a population of >any size in the mountains. There would be no big population to feed. The women and children of Gondor would remain with the women and children of the fiefs and, unfortunately, these would all bear the brunt of the occupation, while their men hid in the mountains and fought the resistance. Eowyn had the basic point correct, though her own despair and bitterness obscured it, when she said But when the men have died in battle and honour, you have leave to be burned in the house, for the men will need it no more. And those "many sad faces of women [looking] out from dark doors" in Dunharrow as the Ride of the Rohirrim began were a testimony of what was at stake, too. >I do not doubt that Gondor's secret strongholds were stocked with provisions, > but those would have exhausted in a matter of months or years. Those slopes of the White Mountains face the warm south and the sea -- there would be abundant food and hunting and fishing year round (at the lower elevations) for anyone living off the land. The women and children in the plains, however, would be in for hard times, for Sauron's armies would plunder the land, burn it and poison it and exact heavy tolls. >The survivors of Gondor could regroup and perhaps >found new settlements that would allow them to slowly renew their >numbers. It was certainly a more attractive long-term option than >gradual extermination. It would hasten their extinction. Every time they settled down somewhere the Enemy would be able to find them. Better the roaming life in the mountains, slowly gathering strength and working toward a military solution to the problem. >> Perhaps that's >>what the earlier Numenoreans had in mind when they built the >>Glittering Caves of Aglarond and maybe even other, unmentioned refuges >>in early days before they had waxed mighty. > >Did the Numenoreans build the Glittering Caves of Aglarond? Gimli's >description always gave me the impression that they were natural, >pristine caverns that the Rohirrim only entered in time of war. I have read in a couple places that they were built at around the same time as Isengard as part of the defense of the Gap of Rohan/Fords of Isen, though I can't right now quote a source for that. In doing a quick Web search, I did discover the claim that "The Glittering Caves is one of very few locations in Tolkien's work that we can associate with a real place. They were inspired by the caves of Cheddar Gorge, in the southern English county of Somerset" at http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/g/glitteringcaves.html >> >> Nay, though all things must come utterly to an end in time, >> Gondor shall not perish yet. Not though the walls be taken by >> a reckless foe that will build a hill of carrion before them. >> There are still other fastnesses, and secret ways of escape >> into the mountains. Hope and memory shall live still in some >> hidden valley where the grass is green. >> -- Beregond of the Guard >> >>>>More likely Denethor, knowing that "all the East is moving," would >>>>have looked south and west. All those mountain vales and wide land of >>>>many rivers running to the sea, with Imrahil's base at Belfalas and >>>>the ally of Rohan on the other side of the mountains...there was a lot >>>>Denthor could do there to regather the strength of Gondor after the >>>>downfall of Minas Tirith and harass and bleed any forces trying to >>>>occupy the land. Sauron couldn't have easily put the huge area under >>>>control. My guess is that Denethor would have waged a guerrilla >>>>campaign in the flat lands while Imrahil kept the Southrons at bay > >Did Imrahil have sufficient resources to do this? He might be able to >defend Dol Amroth, but could he protect the coasts of Gondor and the >mouths of Anduin as well? No. But neither would Sauron be able to claim dominion over these areas as long as Dol Amroth was in Dunedain hands and a strong resistance force made the White Mountains and the mountains around the Vale of Ringlo no-go areas for Sauron's forces and the land between the rivers a place of constant challenge and attack. Again I draw the parallel with the Elves of Ossiriand who did exactly that against Morgoth's forces in the First Age (see below). >>>> and the entrance to Anduin in friendly hands. When ready, the Gondorian >>>>forces would issue forth and first retake the Ringlo vale, which they >>>>could relatively easily hold against Sauron's forces in Dor-en-Ernil >>>>and Lebennin. Then, when the time was ripe, a second Gondorian force >>>>would issue forth from the northern vales, as Imrahil marched north >>>>from Belfalas and perhaps also sent a force up the river. An attack >>>>from the Ringlo vale would complete the encircling and destruction of >>>>Sauron's forces in the region, and the united forces would then turn >>>>north and attempt to regain Minas Tirith from the south at the same >>>>time that the Riders of Rohan were approaching from the north. >>>> >>>>Barb >>> >>>An interesting scenario, but it seems rather unlikely to me. It is >>>important to remember that Sauron controlled Umbar and his armies were >>>much larger than anything Denethor or Imrahil could call upon. In the >>>scenario that you have described, it would be relatively simple for >>>Sauron to dispatch two or more Southron armies/navies against Dol >>>Amroth. Dol Amroth may have been a mighty fortress, but it could not >>>possibly hope to resist an army as large as that dispatched against >>>Minas Tirith (especially if it was led by the Nazgul.) >> >>It wouldn't have to. No army as big as the one that besieged Minas >>Tirith could come against it. Minas Tirith had the wide Pelennor in >>front of it for an enemy army to camp in. Not so with Dol Amroth. It >>has water on three sides (including two bays where conceivably ships >>could be trapped and destroyed), and mountains close by on the fourth >>which would ensure the high ground against any attackers coming >>against Dol Amroth by land; those mountains would also provide refuge, >>if necessary, and guaranteed communication and supply lines with >>Dunedain elsewhere in the White Mountains. Many of the Gondorians >>were probably hardy mountaineers, even the Steward's sons -- look at >>Boromir's sage advice before the Fellowship tackled Caradhras, for >>instance. > >All good points, but I have the text on my side. ^___^ > >"Then you would have us retreat to Minas Tirith, or Dol Amroth, or to >Dunharrow, and there sit like children on sand castles when the tide >is flowing?" said Imrahil. > >Imrahil is clearly acknowledging that even such a formidable fortress >as Dol Amroth could not long withstand the might of Sauron's armies. I'd like to see in detail how Sauron might have defeated Dol Amroth. A very, very tough nut to crack. Imrahil says this after the battle has been won and while they're trying to figure out what to do next; it is a reference to the unsatisfactoriness of past tactics when it comes to maintaining their present momentum. It's not applicable to the situation that would result had Minas Tirith fallen. Everything would have changed and Imrahil would likely instead, in some mountain fastness or in Dol Amroth, be pointing out that the tide, once in, must necessarily retreat at some point to regather fresh strength, and that would be when they would attack; then, or at some point of the Dunedain's own choosing when they would "trap the tide on land," i.e., sever the Enemy's long supply lines as well as through ongoing harassment prevent enemy forces from establishing new supply sources west of Anduin (South Ithilien would have to be written off -- it was a contested land, I think, even in Denethor's day). >Some of the same tactics that were utilized so effectively at the >Pelennor--fiery missiles, for example, could also be employed in any >siege of Dol Amroth. The terror of the Nazgul certainly would have >been effective. Recall that even the knights of Dol Amroth fled when >the Witch-King entered the gates of Minas Tirith. Where would they set up the catapults? On a ship, thereby risking setting it on fire? On the land in front of Dol Amroth, where Dunedain could come at them from both sides of the peninsula neck, isolate and destroy them? The geography is very different and there is no wide Pelennor in front of the city handy for a gathering of troops, fire trenches, seige engines or Mumakil; there is, however, enough room between the castle and the mountains for Imrahil's fine cavalry to be used very effectively. >> >>Getting back to Dol Amroth, it's very strategically located. I wonder >>why JRRT placed it so -- did he have plans for the story there, >>perhaps? > >That's a good question! I also wonder if Dol Amroth was founded by >the Numenoreans in the days of their power or whether it was built >after Numenor had perished. An interesting question. It could have been founded by the Numenoreans as it is along the shore and then built up once the Realms in Exile were being fashioned. Certainly the later presence in Belfalas of Elven havens and of the Good People must have enriched the humans there quite a bit and may have led to improvements upon whatever older works were present. >Tolkien's meticulous attention to even such seemingly trivial details >is, incidentally, yet another reason why he towers over other fantasy >writers. Yep! >> >>Sauron would have to ship an entire army to Anfalas and Belfalas >>(where the enemy troops would meet intense opposition) because if they >>came overland, even assuming the Dunedain wouldn't be strong enough to >>fight them again at Poros or even to hold Pelargir, they'd be bled dry >>by guerrillas before they got to Dor-en-Ernil and the mountains that >>guard the entrance to the Ringlo Vale. It would be Ossiriand and the >>forces of Morgoth all over again. And at the pass to the Ringlo Vale, >>the Southrons would have to split their surviving forces, sending some >>through the pass into the Vale to come at Dol Amroth from the north, >>if any could survive the marksmanship of the archers of Morthond Vale >>and others in the western slopes of the mountains. The rest of the >>Southrons would go through Belfalas and would be under fire from the >>eastern slopes of mountains all the way. Even a handful of determined >>Dunedain could pick them all off before they reached Dol Amroth, let >>alone attacked it. > >I believe that you underestimate the ruthlessness of the enemy. >Sauron, like Morgoth, simply did not care about losses. At some point he would have to. >He was >obviously willing to sacrifice as many men as might be necessary to >conquer Dol Amroth and Minas Tirith. Time was, after all, very much >on his side. He had already waited more than a thousand years for his >vengeance - another hundred years would hardly matter. Recall that he >only launched the war when he did because he learned that the Heir of >Isildur had the Ruling Ring. This strategy might work for the "spook" components of his armies, but the Mortal Men who were under his sway and comprised a very large component of his forces would need to see results relatively quickly or lose heart and maybe even rebel. >I would also like to point out that orcs (particularly those bred in >the confines of Moria) were very keen-eyed in the dark and they could >be deadly archers. Even a few companies of such orcs could >effectively neutralize the archers of Morthond Vale. I disagree, but how could we put it to the test? >They would be >fighting on alien turf, but they would also be smaller than men and >thus able to hide more easily. Not an advantage when the Dunedain and mountain people know the lands like the back of their hands, day and night. >I doubt that these archers could >really stop a determined army. Faramir and his men were expert >archers and even they had to descend and defeat the Southrons in close >quarters combat in Ithilen. Well, there was hand-to-hand combat in the fray, but we don't know what played the greatest role in the fight because we never saw it in detail. My guess would be that Faramir needed to hit the Southrons quickly and ruthlessly, leaving no one to bring word of the attack to Mordor before he and his men had left the area. Spears and swords and heavy blows would be the best tools to accomplish this. Archery is more of a long-distance tactic -- ideal to harass and bleed convoys and the like. The mounts of the Nazgul would be arrow-magnets for sure (g). >It's also important to understand that the Dunedain would effectively >neutralized even if they could not be utterly defeated. Imrahil would >not able to launch major offensives from Dol Amroth especially if it >was besieged. The remnants of Gondor would be restricted to quick >raids and brief assaults. Their mobility would be restricted by the >terrain and their lack of horses. Sauron could also employ the same >strategy that Morgoth had used to conquer Dorthonion or that he >himself had used to capture Mirkwood: Simply allow wolves, giant >spiders and other nasty creatures to move into the country until South >Gondor had become a land of such gloom and dread that few would dare >enter it. Well, Mirkwood is a poor example because King Thranduil's people throve in it even during the darkest periods of the Necromancer's occupation. Quick raids and brief assaults can be very wearing for an occupying force. The terrain would favor this as all the high ground would be in Dunedain hands from the get-go. They would not need horses in a land of mountain and river travel. And how could nasty creatures be "allowed" to move into a country full of resistance fighters? They'd be massacred as they arrived. The only part of Sauron's forces that could move in there would be an offensive force -- Orcs, Men and maybe wolf riders -- but they would face daily harassment and fighting and need to be constantly replaced, thus requiring those long, vulnerable supply lines I've been mentioning. >> >>And all through it, messengers would keep Dol Amroth apprised of >>everything happening in the field, while the commanders of the two >>wings of the attacking army would have an impassable mountain range in >>between them, not to mention the distance to Sauron or whatever field >>commander he had installed at Minas Tirith and Pelargir and perhaps >>Linhir too. And let's not get into length of supply lines, etc. > >Supplies are not much of a problem if Sauron controls the Anduin. The >river would flow in the exact direction of the battle and supplies >could be shipped from Minas Morgul to Pelargir. Reinforcements >(primarily Easterlings) could take the same route. Well, I'n not sure how healthy any supplies coming from Morgul would be (g). Certainly, though, supplies and men could be shipped downriver from a number of places once Minas Tirith had fallen. But that's the easy part. How do food, equipment and men safely get from Pelargir to all the outposts in Lebennin, especially, but also Lossarnach, Dor-en-Ernil and, if any have been established successfully, in the Ringlo Vale and Lamedon? >>No, they'd have to go at Dol Amroth with a landing at Anfalas. Yet >>even if the Southron armies succeeded in establishing a beachhead >>there and were then reinforced with more troops (all of which would >>take a lot of time), there would still be the problem with >>communication and supply lines, not to mention all the advantages, >>mentioned above, that the terrain gave to the defenders. > >The Dunedain would also have to contend with these disadvantages. How so? They wouldn't have to be checking back in with the Barad-Dur for orders, wouldn't be camped out on the beach and surrounded by enemies, and would have the support of the people and be living off the land. >Unlike Sauron's armies, however, they could not count on additional >supplies and reinforcements. They would be fighting a defensive war >and, as Faramir so aptly put it, "Sauron can afford to lose a host >better than we to lose a company." Sauron could pursue a scorched >earth policy that would deny the defenders any chance of replenishing >their supplies while he imported his own supplies. And starve his own people, too. It's usually the residents who do the "scorched earth thing" precisely to force invaders to establish those long, vulnerable supply lines. This tactic the Dunedain might well use to their advantage, especially in Anfalas and perhaps also Belfalas. >> >>And just how many ships could Sauron count on, anyway? The main fleet >>of Umbar was about 50 vessels large enough to carry troops and many >>small vessels. Were these enough to both invest Dol Amroth, the >>Longstrand and Belfalas, as well as keep a tight hold on Ethir Anduin >>and the passages of the Anduin, plus patrol the rivers of Lebennin? > >They were sufficient to conquer all of South Gondor (with the >exception of Dol Amroth) during the War of the Ring. South Gondor had not yet been conquered. It was only just beginning to be attacked. The fords at Linhir, for example, were still being contested with the Grey Company passed (see below). > It was only the >completely unexpected arrival of Aragorn and the host of the Dead that >routed the armies of the Haradrim. Agreed. >I also wonder if the Dunedain >actually had any ships on the rivers of Lebennin at that time. The >naval might of Gondor seems to have disappeared almost completely >during Denethor's stewardship. A reaction, perhaps, to Thorongil's great victory at Umbar? More likely a consequence of Denethor's growing preoccupation with the palantir and focus on the "sand castle" of Minas Tirith. >> >>Dol Amroth could be attacked by air, and certainly some or all of the >>Nazgul would come against it. But even assuming all nine survived the >>Battle of Pelennor Fields, they would be spread pretty thin: some >>would be needed in Rohan, some in the north by Mirkwood and Erebor and >>Lorien, some to guard Mordor and the newly won Minas Tirith, as well >>as to patrol the White Mountains. And in all these areas would be >>bowmen at least the match of Legolas -- the Nazgul's mounts were >>extremely vulnerable wherever they flew. > >Why do you assume that the Nazgul would be divided? They were most >formidable when they operated as a unit. Sauron certainly recognized >that and dispatched all nine to seize the Ring and to assail Minas >Tirith. Moreover, the offensive capacity of the countries mentioned >above was virtually nil. I doubt Sauron would waste any of the Nazgul >on the task of patrolling Mirkwood or Erebor. He had other commanders >for that task. He only assailed the realms of Rhovanion in order to >prevent his enemies from recreating the Last Alliance that had >defeated him in the Second Age. Why would that concern diminish after the fall of Minas Tirith? Then more than ever would he have to be wary of another alliance between Men and Elves and Dwarves, especially with Rivendell and Lorien still hidden and the Grey Havens still available, should it be desired to launch a sea force to go south this time rather than receive one coming up from the south. I have read a discussion somewhere, and I'm not sure if it was here, concerning the Nazgul's locations during the final stages of the War of the Ring. They weren't always together, but I don't remember the details now, and so can't go into it further. >Let's take a moment to review the situation at the time of the War of >the Ring: There were six kingdoms that were opposed to Sauron: >Gondor, Rohan, Lorien, Thrainduil and the elves of Mirkwood, >Erebor/Dale and the Beornings. In order to defeat and/or neutralize >these enemies, Sauron attacked each as follows: > >Gondor: Simultaneous land/sea assaults upon South Gondor and Minas >Tirith. 3 armies were dispatched: The Corsairs of Umbar were >dispatched to conquer South Gondor while Minas Tirith was assailed by >the army of Minas Morgul; A third army was dispatched from Barad-dur >to prevent the Rohirrim from aiding Gondor. > >Result: Corsairs routed by Aragorn and the host of the Dead. The >host of Minas Morgul was just barely defeated by the combined armies >of Minas Tirith, Rohan and the reinforcements led by Aragorn. Had >Aragorn been slain during the long road from the Paths of the Dead, >Minas Tirith would have almost certainly been conquered. The army of >Barad-dur was routed and dispersed by the Rohirrim after the Battle of >the Pelennor Fields. > >Rohan: Sauron attempted to neutralize Rohan by corrupting Saruman. >This strategy would have succeeded except for the unexpected >intervention of Gandalf and the Ents. Sauron then dispatched two >armies to destroy the Rohirrim. One occupied Anorien and the other >assailed the eastern frontiers of Rohan. > >Result: The army of Barad-dur, as previously mentioned, was dispersed >(but not destroyed) after the Battle of the Field of Pelennor. The >survivors presumably perished or went home after Sauron's downfall. >The army that had assailed Rohan was utterly and unexpectedly >destroyed by the Ents. > >Lorien: Sauron sent an army from Dol Guldur as well as units from >Moria to attack Lorien. > >Result: The elves of Lorien were able successfully repel all assaults >BUT were unable to destroy Dol Guldur until after Sauron's downfall. > >Mirkwood: Sauron dispatched forces from Dol Guldur to attack >Thranduil and the men of the Mirkwood. These may have been joined by >Easterlings. > >Result: Thranduil prevailed only after a long and costly >battle--probably the longest battle of the entire war--and needed the >assistance of Galadriel & Celeborn to completely destroy all of >Sauron's creatures in Mirkwood. > >Erebor & Dale: Sauron dispatched an army of Easterlings to attack >Dale & the Lonely Mountain. > >Result: Dale was conquered and the forces of Erebor were routed, but >the survivors were able to take refuge and withstand a siege in the >Lonely Mountain. They were unable to defeat their enemies until after >the destruction of the Ring. > >The Beornings: While little is known of their role in the War of the >Ring, Sauron could have attacked them with forces from three >directions: The Mines of Moria, the Grey Mountains and Dol Guldur. > >Result: Frodo saw evidence that the Beornings were being attacked >while he gazed out from Amon Hen, but, AFAIK, Tolkien does not mention >them again in LOTR. They presumably either defeated the invaders or >else joined themselves to the Host of Thranduil and fought in the >battles of Mirkwood. Nice summary. I think the troubles of Bree, given its proximity to old Rhudaur and Angmar, and the occupation of the Shire by Sharkey's men might also fit in there, too, though the latter most likely was not a direct plan of Sauron's -- it's hard to say how much he influenced Saruman in this, but Gandalf did point out that Sauron was now aware of hobbits and would want them as slaves. >As you can see, Sauron was able to field at least eight armies >simultaneously and at least six of those armies would have been >successful had it not been for factors that Sauron did not or could >not anticipate: But that were still part of The Song. One can't totally discount Eru and all sorts of unexpected things occurring along the way. >The defeat of Saruman; the intervention of the Ents >and the appearance of Aragorn and his allies, It's unlikely that the >presence of the Nazgul at any of these battles (with the exception of >the Field of Pelennor) would have made much difference. Denethor was >absolutely correct when he perceived that he could not hope to defeat >the military might of Mordor. Yep. This, however, was before Sauron would have overrun such a large area. The problem with conquest is maintenance. >>> We must also >>>remember that the southern fiefs were on the verge of being conquered >>>when Aragorn arrived with army of the Dead. >> >>Were they actually on the verge of being conquered? There was battle >>at Linhir at the fords of Gilrain, where the men of Lamedon were >>fighting troops from Umbar and Harad who had sailed up the river, but >>we don't know that either side was winning -- almost everybody freaked >>out and fled when the Grey Company and the Army of the Dead showed up. >>The Dunedain and mountain men might well have been holding their own >>there, at the least, or even winning. > >Possibly, but Gimli says that the Haradrim were still a formidable >army when they regrouped at Pelargir. Indeed, Aragorn never would >have been able to prevail at that point without the aid of the Dead. >My impression (and I could easily be mistaken) is that much of the >army was still being held in reserve while the Battle of the Fords of >Gilrain was being fought. If so, I wonder why. Rather, I think, they were waiting to sail up to Minas Tirith. >>The main fleet of Umbar was at Pelargir, but I don't know that there >>was a battle there until the Grey Company showed up. Probably most of >>that fleet was intended to sail up the river to Minas Tirith, leaving >>behind enough men to hold Pelargir (which would in any case, until >>Aragorn showed up, have been abandoned without a fight), and then >>after the fall of the City head south to join in the "mop up" and >>quite possibly ended up in a real 'quagmire.' > >The very fact that the Pelargir HAD been abandoned speaks volumes >about the military strength of the southern fiefs. Pelargir might not >have been of much use to Gondor, but it would have been very valuable >as a base and a supply depot for the Haradrim. They could and did use >it to land troops in South Gondor. You don't give up such a strategic >location without a battle unless you have absolutely no choice. Perhaps it was abandoned precisely because it was recognized that it would be easier to wreck enemy supply lines as the enemy tried to distribute men and materiel, etc., from Pelargir into the occupied zones. You don't attack a strong point when you can attack a weak point. Speaking of Sun Tzu, who mentioned that in his "Art of War," he also described five essentials for victory. Here they are [with commentary in brackets] from http://www.kimsoft.com/polwar3.htm_: Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: a) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. [Chang Yu says: If he can fight, he advances and takes the offensive; if he cannot fight, he retreats and remains on the defensive. He will invariably conquer who knows whether it is right to take the offensive or the defensive.] b) He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. [This is not merely the general's ability to estimate numbers correctly, as Li Ch`uan and others make out. Chang Yu expounds the saying more satisfactorily: "By applying the art of war, it is possible with a lesser force to defeat a greater, and vice versa. The secret lies in an eye for locality, and in not letting the right moment slip. Thus Wu Tzu says: 'With a superior force, make for easy ground; with an inferior one, make for difficult ground.'"] c) He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. d) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. e) He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign. [Tu Yu quotes Wang Tzu as saying: "It is the sovereign's function to give broad instructions, but to decide on battle it is the function of the general." It is needless to dilate on the military disasters which have been caused by undue interference with operations in the field on the part of the home government. Napoleon undoubtedly owed much of his extraordinary success to the fact that he was not hampered by central authority.] Can this be applied here to predict a winner in South Gondor if Minas Tirith had fallen in the first onslaught? I would say the quality of commanders was better among the Dunedain and their forces more imbued with "the same spirit" rather than the nasty spirit of Mordor that Frodo and Sam see in action; there was an abundance of difficult ground handy for their smaller forces; their commanders had more autonomy and were less interfered with by the Steward (if any Steward, i.e., Denethor or Faramir, had survived the fall of the city; if not, it would be Imrahil, and he didn't seem like a micro-manager), whereas Sauron's will actually controlled all his soldiers as was shown at the last battle when Sauron let them go to deal with Frodo, who had just claimed the Ring, and they all faltered and panicked; and there was plenty of opportunity in the wide lands of Lebennin, along the expanse of Anfalas and in the mountains to catch the enemy unprepared. In short, the Dunedain had everything going for them to win eventually. >>That might have turned out differently, had an alliance been formed >>with the Elves of Ossiriand. > >I think that it is rather unlikely. There was very little that the >Elves of Ossiriand could do against the forces that Morgoth had >marshaled for the conquest of Nargothrond or Gondolin. I think that >even the Dwarven cities of Belegost & Nogrod would have been conquered >if Morgoth had not been preoccupied with Hithlum, Nargothrond & the >other Noldorin realms. Unfortunately I can't find my copy of "The Silmarillion," but I'm pretty sure it says in there that Morgoth did go after the Elves of Ossiriand, who hunted down and destroyed all his forces but who were also very wary and shy and so no alliance could be formed with them. >>Denethor lost hope, and I think had lost the resilience that people >>like Beregond still retained. Minas Tirith was the biggest sand >>castle in a running tide and so would last a little longer than the >>others. Imrahil led so many men to Gondor in answer to Denethor's >>call certainly because Minas Tirith was important and Denethor was >>kin, but also because he knew that Dol Amroth more than likely would >>still be there (for the reasons given above), even if he had to fight >>all the way back to it after the defeat of Minas Tirith. > >He might return to Dol Amroth, but it would be only a matter of time >before Sauron would capture that fortress too. Minas Tirith was >Gondor in the same way that Constantinople was Byzantium. Once either >city had perished, the Empire died with it too. But both Gondor and Arnor were Realms in Exile. The heritage of Numenor adds a dimension here that Byzantium lacked and complicates by quite a bit the task that Sauron had set for himself. Barb ###### Message-ID: <41879890.596D0F65@nowhere.com> From: Jussi Jaatinen <1.1@nowhere.com> X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.79 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U) X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 14 Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 14:19:13 GMT NNTP-Posting-Host: 172.21.35.179 X-Complaints-To: newsmaster@nokia.com X-Trace: news1.nokia.com 1099405153 172.21.35.179 (Tue, 02 Nov 2004 16:19:13 EET) NNTP-Posting-Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 16:19:13 EET Organization: Nokia Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!switch.ch!newscore.univie.ac.at!news-fra1.dfn.de!news2.telebyte.nl!border2.nntp.ams.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!feeder2.news.jippii.net!feeder1.news.jippii.net!nntp.inet.fi!inet.fi!newsfeed1.nokia.com!news1.nokia.com!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:163744 Belba Grubb From Stock wrote: > It would hasten their extinction. Every time they settled down > somewhere the Enemy would be able to find them. Better the roaming > life in the mountains, slowly gathering strength and working toward a > military solution to the problem. I haven't been following this thread from the beginning, but in these scenarios where is the Ring? Sauron's object is to capture it, and a key issue in LotR is that the Ring cannot be indefinitely concealed or withheld from him. -JJ ###### From: Belba Grubb From Stock Newsgroups: alt.fan.tolkien,rec.arts.books.tolkien Subject: Re: Sauron's conquest of Middle-earth (very long) Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 16:29:19 -0600 Organization: Very little, but I try Message-ID: References: <38aeacaa.0407260313.3805df65@posting.google.com> <8984j0tr1gmd4ra0k4qj407amsehic7nuj@4ax.com> <41879890.596D0F65@nowhere.com> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.93/32.576 English (American) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Complaints-To: abuse@supernews.com Lines: 47 Path: nightfall.franklin.ch!pfaff2.ethz.ch!news-zh.switch.ch!irazu.switch.ch!switch.ch!news-fra1.dfn.de!news.tele.dk!news.tele.dk!small.news.tele.dk!sn-xit-03!sn-xit-08!sn-post-02!sn-post-01!supernews.com!corp.supernews.com!not-for-mail Xref: nightfall.franklin.ch rec.arts.books.tolkien:164082 On Tue, 02 Nov 2004 14:19:13 GMT, Jussi Jaatinen <1.1@nowhere.com> wrote: >Belba Grubb From Stock wrote: > >> It would hasten their extinction. Every time they settled down >> somewhere the Enemy would be able to find them. Better the roaming >> life in the mountains, slowly gathering strength and working toward a >> military solution to the problem. > >I haven't been following this thread from the beginning, but in these >scenarios where is the Ring? Sauron's object is to capture it, and a key >issue in LotR is that the Ring cannot be indefinitely concealed or >withheld from him. An excellent question. Suppose Minas Tirith had fallen that day, as Frodo and Sam were beginning to head north along the Morgai. It depends a bit on whether those who knew of the Quest survived, specifically Aragorn and/or Gandalf, and could guide the counsels of the defeated Dunedain. I think both Aragorn and Gandalf would have advised whoever was the new Steward to draw the enemy's forces away from Mordor, and where better to go than into South Gondor as I have described. Such a maneuver would have actually made it easier for Frodo and Sam. That massive army around Cirith Gorgor, that "if it had also been its purpose to defend the Mountain against all approach, it could scarcely have done more," would probably have been outside Mordor at that point and there would have been far fewer enemy troops between Frodo and the Mountain at that point; as well, Sauron would still be focusing wholly outside Mordor, hunting down Aragorn, if that man had survived the wreck of Minas Tirith, and the Steward and Imrahil, if Imrahil wasn't already acting as Steward, and Eomer and any other potential leaders of the Dunedain and the Rohirrhim, totally absorbed in ordering the movements of all his many armies outside his realm. Frodo would have had a slightly easier time of it getting to Orodruin and not gotten caught up in that traveling group of Orcs, but I think matters would have eventually played out the same, as it all came down to a matter of Sam, Frodo and Gollum. Frodo and Sam probably would have perished, though, at the end. :-( It certainly underscores the wisdom of sending the Ring to the Mountain -- even with Gondor fallen, Sauron could have been defeated. Barb